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Forum abc-latinaDiscussions sur l' Amérique Latine
#1 2008-09-11 15:00:30
Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceCertaines personnes critiquent la politique économique brésilienne en la comparant parfois à celle de la France. Pourtant même si la bourse de SP baisse ces derniers mois (elle se "régule"), le Brésil semble résister mieux à la crise mondiale que ses partenaires européens notamment la France. Plusieurs indicateurs peuvent laisser à penser que le Brésil va probablement entrer en crise. Seulement certains ne tiennent pas compte des potentialités et des résultats concrets, comme la croissance. L'euro baisse par rapport au dollar mais monte par rapport au Real. On va tirer comme conclusion que le real s'effondre? Par ailleurs, la croissance au Brésil sera de plus 5, alors qu'en France on se félicite si elle atteint 1! C'est ça le grand changement : avant le Brésil en crise dépendait du FMI de la finance mondiale, la France déterminait sa politique monétaire seule. Aujourd'hui les brésiliens sont plus indépendants que les français qui dépendent de la finance mondiale, du fric qui vient parfois de l'extrême orient ou l'extrême sud-occident. "La tortilla se voltea", comme disent les espagnols. Pour le moment, la tortilla va rester comme ça. Le Brésil démontre ses atouts qu'il ne faut pas chercher dans le Bovespa automatiquement. Dernière modification par Alexrio (2008-09-11 15:09:27) Hors ligne #2 2008-09-11 16:02:53
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceQuel autre pays a autant de ressources naturelles ? Seul le charbon et le gaz manquent au Brésil... Avec un tel potentiel et une économie de plus en plus dinamique il serait heureux de voir l'éducation du pays s'améliorer. Pour l'instant seule une partie de la population profite vraiment de la croissance à proprement parler. La France est une pays trop taxé, on répond à un problème par une taxe systématique. Et à force de trop assister il n'y a plus de dynamique de l'emploi, 8 millions de français vivent sous le seuil de pauvreté, j'ose imaginer que les conditions de vie pour ces personnes seraient comparables à celles de la Roumanie ou la Pologne sans: -Aide au logement, Et qui paye tout ça ? sûrement pas les plus riches, c'est la classe moyenne qui en souffre le plus... Cependant le Brésil a encore beaucoup de progrès à faire par rapport à la France, surtout au niveau des infrastructures, de la santé et de l'éducation et de la sécurité. La classe moyenne au Brésil vit beaucoup mieux que la classe moyenne en France, ça c'est sûr ! Hors ligne #3 2008-09-12 07:59:57
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la Francemoi je remarque 1 chose : la pologne vient de demander de rentrer dans l' euro l'angleterre qui est independante du systeme européen a largement profité de la croissance US qui parie sur l'entrée tres prochaine de l'angleterre dans le systeme européen et sa monnaie le bresil a des atouts immenses et doit logiquement mieux s'en sortir quand a la croissance, il faut mettre en façe l'inflation ;-) alexrio : "Aujourd'hui les brésiliens sont plus indépendants que les français qui dépendent de la finance mondiale," la crise actuelle demontre exactement la meme chose pour le bresil ;-) Dernière modification par axiom (2008-09-12 08:16:10) Hors ligne #4 2008-09-12 09:07:51
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceSalut mon grand ! Je te parie un Irish coffee (2 ? 3 ?) que non. UK à déjà refusé le SME et l’ECU alors l’€uro ! C’est vrai que les temps ont changé ….. Britain rejects both the snake and the apple As the possibility of Britain joining the proposed European Monetary System on January 1 has diminished, the first aim of British diplomacy has become how to prevent a general deterioration of Britain's relations with the Common Market. The Cabinet is yet to make a formal decision, but Ministers have come to regard the EMS as little more than a thinly disguised version of the old German dominated currency snake. To this end the Government will be trying to preserve the ability to influence — from the outside — any development by the snake in the direction of a genuine "European" currency system. What Ministers mean by "European" is a system which would work towards a convergence of economic performance among the nine members of the EEC rather than one which would hitch the weaker currencies, including the pound, to the Deutschmark at the expense of the industry of those countries. This line of argument from London — although there is some logic to it — will be regarded in most European capitals as the acme of hypocrisy — a case of the British posing as more European than the "Europeans" for the purpose of disguising their government's lack of authority to make a potentially historic decision. In Britain a consensus of despair seems to have formed around this arcane issue. It is too big a question for a lame duck government. The mood among Ministers is that they have quite enough difficulty on their plates already without helping themselves to some more unpalatable European pudding. Mr Callaghan and Mr Healey's original lack of enthusiasm for the Schmidt-Giscard design was rooted in a certain conviction but now their position seems to be one chiefly of canny political calculation; they reckon that neither the advantages of belonging nor the disadvantages of not belonging are worth yet another great row within the Labour movement. Essentially, this was what the Prime Minister was trying to say to Chancellor Schmidt in Bonn last week when he told him that his chief priority was the domestic fight against inflation and that he was not inclined to open a second front. Officially, the British line is that it is still intent on turning the proposed Franco-German scheme into something generally workable and acceptable to the British. The prospects for this, however, are now forlorn. Some British Ministers are in private quite scathing about the French President for wrapping in high-flown European rhetoric what they see to have been a sell-out to the Germans at his meeting with Mr Schmidt at Aachen on September 15. It was at this meeting that President Giscard d'Estaing, in effect, settled for rejoining the Snake as a first step towards his more grandiose vision of a European Monetary System with its own reserve fund and its own currency. Senior French officials see the matter quite differently and, allowing for the ruthlessly self-serving nature of official briefings to visiting correspondents, I became convinced after three days in Paris last week that the British Government has seriously misjudged the French position. According to the French officials, and also to several qualified observers in Paris, the British have been sorely mistaken in the weight they have attached to the notion that the French are in a hurry to rejoin the snake as a temporary measure to help themselves through a difficult winter in their domestic struggle against inflation. This line of analysis, which goes on to suppose that President Giscard d'Estaing will soon run into political difficulties, rests on the belief that there is no way in which France — with an inflation rate currently higher than Britain's — can for long live in a fixed parity relationship with Germany. This view is based on several miscalculations and it is to be wondered why such a large and vastly expensive British Embassy is maintained in Paris if its advice is scarcely heeded is London. The first truth of the matter is that President Giscard d'Estaing, quite unlike Mr Callaghan, is in a position of immense political strength and for the time being can do more or less what he likes. From that position of strength he has come to a decision concerning the future of France within the European Community which has little to do with whether or not he thinks hitching the franc to the deutschmark will assist his Prime Minister, Mr Raymond Barre, in his fight against inflation this coming winter. That is one consideration but only one among others and is several places down the President's list of priorities. One of the reasons why he is in a hurry is that he wishes to launch the new initiative towards economic and monetary union in Europe before the Community becomes caught in the throes of further enlargement to include Greece, Spain and Portugal. The chief of the President's priorities is to position France squarely alongside Germany in the vanguard of Western Europe. Keeping up with the Germans has become almost an obsession of the French Government and contrasts with the defeatism which prevails in London. Rather than selling out to the Germans, as the British choose to believe, President Giscard d'Estaing appears to have decided to place his trust in Chancellor Schmidt's ambitious intentions, to understand his domestic political difficulties, and to gamble on his being able to deliver more in due course of substance than he could be expected to deliver on paper by December. That is why at Aachen the French President settled for what at the outset will be — in reality — not much more than an enlarged snake; in Paris they now admit this and call it a "snake with bells." What happens when the bells ring is the central point in technical dispute but before reporting the French position on that it ought to be made abundantly clear that all such technical questions while regarded as crucial in London, are of secondary importance in Paris. The political commitment has been made. The only technical aspect which fundamentally concerns the French is the amount of German money which will be put behind the system from the outset. The French would like to see the full amount of dollar and gold reserves which might eventually be at the disposal of a European Monetary Fund — that is $25 billions from the member countries together — being available through central banks and finance ministries to back up the EMF from its inauguration next year. On that basis France is prepared to adopt a pragmatic approach to the institutionalising of the EMF within the context of the European Community. Importance is still attached to the creation of a European currency (the ECU) — first for intra-European transactions and subsequently for interventions against the dollar — and equally, to the establishment of an EMF. But rather than jeopardise progress towards eventual institutionalisation by precipitating the need for controversial legislation in Germany (and in France too) President Giscard d'Estaing prefers to feel his way forward, trusting his friend Chancellor Schmidt. Membership of the snake is said to have a number of advantages for French industry. It is claimed that greater currency stability will facilitate intra European transactions and encourage investment in French industry. The authorities are prepared to accept a somewhat higher deutschmark parity in exchange for this greater stability. Moreover a strong parity against the dollar cheapens France's essential imports of raw materials including energy of which, unlike Britain, she has to import 75 per cent of her needs. And, some importance — although far less than London imagines — is attached to the contribution which a greater external discipline could make to the control of the domestic money supply. So well as the French would join with Britain in preferring a system which required prompt and effective intervention when the warning bells on the snake ring, the exact details are of secondary importance. The latest intention is that the snake (which is an arrangement by which all the member currencies are linked to each other) should be equipped with a warning system capable of identifying which currencies are responsible for undue fluctuations within the system. All that the Germans, together with the Dutch and the Danes, are prepared to concede is that when alarm rings there should be a "consultation." The French and the Belgians go further and say there should be a "presumption" to intervene. The British, with the Italians and Irish in sympathy, say that there should be an "obligation" to intervene. What the argument is really about is the extent to which Germans ought to be prepared to buy in dollars (which they fear will be inflationary) in order to check the appreciation of their currency as against the onus which should fall on weaker currencies to prevent depreciation by the exercise of greater fiscal and monetary discipline. There is modest scope for compromise in this area but not of the kind likely to satisfy the British. By the time of the EEC Summit in Brussels on December 5 Britain looks certain to be isolated once again. There should be no doubting the determination of the French President to link the franc to the deutschmark for the greater glory of France and although there is a good deal of misgiving about this at lower official levels in Paris, there is virtually no doubt that he will succeed in his intention. Hors ligne #5 2008-09-12 09:17:02
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la Francemoi je suis de l'avis de Chiuni, les anglais reste trop attaché à la livre ... Hors ligne #6 2008-09-15 07:52:27
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la Francerss rss rss : je vais m'en jetter des irish coffee :-) Hors ligne #7 2008-09-15 08:57:18
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceGloboParis a écrit :
8 millions de français sous le seuil de pauvreté ? quelles sont vos sources ? La classe moyenne au Brésil vit beaucoup mieux que la classe moyenne en France, ça c'est sûr !, pas si sur que ça, sur quoi vous basez vous pour une telle affirmation ? La France est une pays trop taxé ? moins que le Brésil en tout cas ..... beaucoup d'affirmations sans fondement ... Hors ligne #8 2008-09-15 15:01:46
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceSalut Alexrio, salut toutes et tous pour la croissance brésilienne a 5% quelles sont les sources ? merci Hors ligne #9 2008-09-16 07:36:09
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la Franceje n'ai pas les sources mais de memoire, je confirme les 5% Hors ligne #10 2008-09-28 22:52:36
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceOladoube a écrit :
La croissance brésilienne comme celle de la France est revu à la baisse pour 2009: moins de 4%, mais croissance quand même! Alors qu'en France on se dirige sans doute vers une recession, malgrè madame la Marquise Lagarde; le Brésil comme d'autres pays émergents sont perçus comme des "sauveurs". est-ce trop demander? On se dirige vers une récession mondiale ou pas? mpacto da crise Da Folha Online Apesar do otimismo do ministro Guido Mantega (Fazenda) --que ainda acredita num crescimento econômico de 4,5% no próximo ano--, já há dentro do próprio governo uma avaliação de que essa taxa pode ficar na casa dos 4% ou menos depois do agravamento da crise financeira mundial, informam Valdo Cruz e Kennedy Alencar, em matéria publicada na Folha de S. Paulo. Num cenário mais pessimista, o crescimento do PIB em 2009 pode até ficar em 3,5%, caso a secura no mercado de crédito externo se mantenha por um período mais longo. A confirmação desse cenário dependerá do sucesso ou fracasso do pacote de US$ 700 bilhões dos EUA. Se ele for bem-sucedido, aposta-se que o Brasil possa crescer ao menos 4%, com a volta mais rápida da normalidade no mercado de crédito externo, responsável por parte significativa dos financiamentos de investimentos no país. Hors ligne #11 2008-09-29 15:15:27
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceSi c'est un Séguiniste qui désavoue maintenant un Ministre important du Sarkosisme...c'est vraiment qu'il y a crise aussi au sein du pouvoir. Zarko est arrivé! Sans blagues, les français y croient encore à ce président qui ne fait que du vent? Il passe d'un discours à un autre et change de cravatte (ou montre) selon les personnes qui son face à lui. Il peut nosu faire des beaux discours (écrit pas Guaino) mais que fais t-il? NADA! Hors ligne #12 2008-09-29 15:33:07
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceEn réponse à Alex, Tu n'as pas vraiment tord, mais entre deux maux il faut choisir le moindre. Quand je vois cette pauvre dinde de Sego en train de jouer du Cyrano de Bergerac sur la scène d'un meeting je suis médusé ! Affligeant ! Hors ligne #13 2008-09-29 15:53:13
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceC'est ce qui m'inquiète Chiuni. On a laissé Néron-Bush détruire son Empire et nous avec! On va en Afghanistan, on tolère l'intervention en Irak, on laisse les US faire leur loi partout dans le monde. Parallèlement ses amis font la loi dans la planète financière et nous continuons à appliquer les méthodes de Harvard ou HEC por nos entreprises et dans notre vie de tous les jours. A force de penser que la chute du mur de Berlin marquait la victoire des idées capitalistes et qu'il n'y avait plsu rien à faire (comme le PS qui a continué la même politique que ses partenaires). La facilité de nos cadres, notre "élite, de tous appliquer la même politique sans chercher d'autres alternatives nous mène dans le mur! On retrouve maintenant des accents "révolutionnaires" dans les discours de Sarko! et Père Rocard d'applaudir...l'arbre qui cache la forêt en feu! Ce qui m'inquiète (plus que le chicarisme de SArko), c'est la comparaison avec 1929, une poussée de l'extrême droite en Autriche, encore l'Autriche...comme l'autrichien H. A un moment où la planète est en feu les extrémistes reviennent vite au galop! Dernière modification par Alexrio (2008-09-29 16:05:49) Hors ligne #14 2008-10-07 20:12:11
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la FranceAvec ce qui se passe actuellement dans la planète finance, on constate que le Brésil est en train d'entrer dans l'oeil du cyclone de la crise aussi. A plus de 3 reais l'euro ce n'est même plus la peine d'acheter des reais (comme le sugère notre ami Chiuni); il vaut mieux garder ces économies en France et attendre, car ici la crise arrivera certainement et ça va faire des ravages. et si fin 2010 l'euro monte à 4 reais? Bref pour paraphraser 'adage bien connu : n'attrapez pas un real qui tombe! donc, garder ces économies en France me paraît plus sage...à suivre évidemment! Alex Rio * Ne pas attraper un couteau qui tombe ou en d’autres termes, ne pas se jeter spontanément et de manière irréfléchie sur un titre dont le cours est en chute libre. Dernière modification par Alexrio (2008-10-07 20:24:46) Hors ligne #15 2008-10-08 21:12:37
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la France'Choques' causarão desacelaração do Brasil, diz FMI Bruno Garcez
FMI diz que real mais desvalorizado irá impulsionar a inflação Em seu relatório Panorama Econômico Mundial, divulgado nesta quarta-feira, o fundo estimou que o Brasil crescerá 3,5% em 2009, taxa inferior à projeção deste ano, de 5,2%. O fundo estima ainda que a taxa de inflação para este ano ficará em 5,7%, contra 3,6%, em 2007, e deverá ser de 5,1% no ano que vem. Câmbio Segundo Collyns, ''haverá menos crescimento, e a queda da taxa de câmbio por si só vai ser um componente a mais para a pressão inflacionária''. Mas o economista diz que ''como o Brasil é uma grande economia, o efeito dominante deverá ser o da desaceleração do crescimento, nem tanto o da taxa de câmbio''. E isso, avalia Collyns, deveria ser usado como uma oportunidade para que o Banco Central possa voltar suas atenções em outra direção, ''a de começar a cortar taxas de juros se a perspectiva de crescimento continuar a deteriorar''. ''Como o Brasil foi muito prudente em suas políticas macroeconômicas nos últimos anos, ele poderá se beneficiar das bases que criou'', comentou. O diretor-adjunto afirma que o Brasil tem recentemente respondido com rapidez a problemas específicos, como a falta de liquidez nos mercados e feito um uso apropriado de suas vastas reservas. Mas acrescenta que ''poderá não haver espaço para ajustar a política monetária se os riscos ao crescimento prosseguirem''. Leia também na BBC Brasil: Para FMI, pior da crise financeira ainda está por vir Hors ligne #16 2008-10-17 18:57:11
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la France"Asian consortium to buy stake in Namisa" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1868768-9c1e … ck_check=1 les boites étrangères viennent faire leurs emplettes au brésil. pas cool Hors ligne #17 2008-10-17 20:51:43
Re : Le Brésil plus indépendant que la Franceniala_78 a écrit :
Pas cool si on veut. Rien de grave pour le Brésil. Hors ligne |
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